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Kelvin Timeline RIP?


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#1 1701D

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Posted 03 August 2016 - 06:18 PM

So it's ironic that the best of the three Kelvin Timeline movies has so far had the weakest run.

This clearly suggests a downward trend for the new series of movies and I feel has to make Paramount think about where it is they want their Star Trek movie series to go.

What I want to find out is do we think that realistically the Kelvin Timeline is dead? Or is there still life left in the old girl yet?

#2 Alteran195

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Posted 03 August 2016 - 06:26 PM

I really hope not. Beyond was fantastic, and it feels like the new movies have really found their footing.

Hopefully they give it one more movie, and that fans will be more trusting after more of them see it when the Blu-Ray comes out.

#3 BadBunnyMike

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Posted 03 August 2016 - 10:16 PM

They already announced the 4th...i highly doubt they would shelve the project so soon after announcing it

#4 1701D

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Posted 04 August 2016 - 08:43 AM

They still have to green light Star Trek 14 and there no telling if and when that will happen.

I mean the actors salaries alone will take a huge chunk out of a diminished budget given the profit Beyond is likely to make.

Now, if it opens big in China then things start to look different but I've got to say it doesn't look good.

Could it be that Paramount think again about Star Trek and hold off on any plans to do another until they know how Star Trek: Discovery does?

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Paramount shelve Star Trek 4 and take it back to the drawing board, maybe building it up slowly from perhaps an animated TV series and then a movie similar to how they've approached TMNT?

I think something different has to be done regardless rather than just another movie out in 3 to 4 years time.

#5 Gothneo

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Posted 04 August 2016 - 04:33 PM

If you look at the numbers... Star Trek, as a franchise, has always had ups and downs. Currently while Beyond is trending a bit on the low side... its still performing with-in statistical expected earning norms.

 

TWOK and TVH are the only two to ever be true break-out block busters by the data.

 

Nemesis, hugged and sometimes dipped into the out right "bomb" level.

 

and there have been highs and lows with most of the rest... Allot of times Trek movies have hot starts and then die quickly... other times they are slow starters and then grind out good returns.

 

Its currently at a total gross of ~170Mil (worldwide) and its production cost was 185 mil. The basic rule is double the production cost in earnings to break even... so it needs to generate another 190 million to break even. 

 

It should be close after 6 or 7 weeks... and if it falls off quicker... then its time to worry.



#6 s8film40

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Posted 05 August 2016 - 09:52 AM

I think 3 was a good number. I didn't like the first two still haven't seen Beyond. Maybe with the new series coming out they could do some movies within that timeline. I would love to see them do something that completely stands on it's own and separate from the series'. Maybe like an anthology series of movies in the same settings as the new series but a different ship different story.



#7 Qcjoe

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Posted 05 August 2016 - 10:05 AM

I read the industry as a whole has been down. The only movies this year with legs has been kids movies.

#8 s8film40

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Posted 05 August 2016 - 11:22 AM

I read the industry as a whole has been down. The only movies this year with legs has been kids movies.

I think there's also a lot of reboot fatigue, probably partially responsible for Ghostbusters bombing.



#9 Shinzon

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Posted 06 August 2016 - 06:13 AM

I hope they give us one more... Personally I always thought three was a good number.... the biggest mistake this movie made was what the others did very shrewdly... if you end up not getting the next one, best for the final scene to be your crew out in space, going to create more adventures.



#10 BadBunnyMike

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Posted 07 August 2016 - 03:37 AM

Independence Day didnt do too hot either this year which could add to the reboot fatigue

#11 Gothneo

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Posted 07 August 2016 - 05:32 AM

Here's how its stacking up to some of this years movies. Its not break out like Deadpool, but its also not the worst. This just shows the daily domestic box office... the production budget on these movies varies quit a bit... for example Deadpool only had about 58Mil budget... so its really a breakout.... the worry is that of these films, Beyond had the largest production budget, so the expectations are probably greater.

 

Still... world wide Beyond is right about at its production budget, which means, it now needs to grind out another 185 Mil (world wide) to break even.

 

We allready know there will be another... the question is do the studios give Trek the real "TWOK" treatment... which is to say, they cut the production budget and find producers and directors that can do more with less?!

 

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#12 s8film40

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Posted 07 August 2016 - 07:10 AM

It's also important to remember the studios only get about half of the theater revenue. So as of now the studio has only taken in a little under $100 million on this.



#13 Daysleeper

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Posted 07 August 2016 - 09:46 AM

@BadBunnyMike: Independence Day 2 was such a bad bad bad movie. I know a few people who didn't go see it because everyone wha had already seen it warned them not to go. I don't know whether it was reboot fatigue or simply word of mouth that the movie sucked.

#14 Gothneo

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Posted 07 August 2016 - 01:46 PM

It's also important to remember the studios only get about half of the theater revenue. So as of now the studio has only taken in a little under $100 million on this.

 

Correct! Apparently the way movies make money can be complex... but most people say if it doubles its production budget (international and domestic) it breaks even. So your pretty much in the money once it reaches 185 x 2 or 370 million. 

 

There may be something to the idea of "franchise fatigue" I think, regardless of if its a good movie or not people want to see something new.

 

Suicide Squad has been generally panned... but it just smashed the August opening weekend record. 

 

With a production budget of 175MM and a 3 day grab 267MM worldwide... that sounds promising! 

 

Heck... despite the bad reviews... I plan to see it on tuesday! why? because its something different!



#15 1701D

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Posted 08 August 2016 - 05:29 PM

I think it's very simple.

- Paramount made a bad move with the whole Star Trek Axanar. Regardless of whether or not they were right to sue (they were) or not. The whole studio vs the fans negativity isn't something you want when you're launching a big movie and on the back of the 50th.

- the silent build up. Paramount pushed Star Trek Beyond and made people aware of it in just two months before its release. What the actual F! Every other big budget blockbuster has had at least a year to build anticipation, excitement. Paramount put out one poorly received trailer that no one liked and after that... Zilch! No one knew about Beyond!

- the Star Wars factor. I think a lot (but not all) of casual moviegoers just don't care about Star Trek! And now with Star Wars here to stay. People care even less about a Star Trek universe that was originally conceived as star trek's answer to Star Wars! Why settle for Star Wars lite when the real thing is only 6 months away.

Star Trek Beyond was brilliant but it was too little too late and quite honestly the Kelvin Timeline has never really taken off. These movies have been in decline since 2009.

Star Trek is a TV series. That's where it'll find its audience, it'll find a voice and it will do very nicely for itself. There's no franchise fatigue, there's just no real urgency to go and see a Star Trek movie. There never has been at least since the early 80's.

#16 Gothneo

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Posted 08 August 2016 - 06:10 PM

I don't think Axanar factors into anything with regards to the general movie going public... they have no idea about it.

 

I think your right about the marketing. That was messed up.

 

I also think JJ tried to make Star Trek into Star Wars... and Paramount let him... which was a huge marketing and branding mistake as now when the "real" star wars is back people will prefer that. 

 

Finally.. yes, I agree Trek shines best on the small screen... and movies were always a great nod to the fans. 

 

But the numbers do suggest that people want to see something new... at least this year. X-Men, Star Trek, Ghost Busters, Independence day all franchises that are just blindly trying to apply the cash formula... People are going to movies like Batman V Superman and Suicide Squad because at least they will see something different... even if it turns out to be bad!



#17 Alteran195

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Posted 08 August 2016 - 06:53 PM

The fact that people are going to see Suicide Squad in droves, even though everything I've read says it's just crap, really makes me mad. Beyond may be a franchise movie, but it was damn good, and most people are saying the same. It deserves to do so much better than it is.

I really hope Suicide Squad has the same kind of decline as Beyond did in the following weekends.

#18 richpit

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Posted 08 August 2016 - 07:54 PM

Suicide Squad was a very good movie, IMO, and I read that it did $135 million on its opening weekend. 



#19 Gothneo

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Posted 09 August 2016 - 02:14 AM

I really hope Suicide Squad has the same kind of decline as Beyond did in the following weekends.

 

Do you mean "Doesn't have the same kind of decline"? I don't wish for any movie to do bad... or be bad for that matter.

 

 

Suicide Squad was a very good movie, IMO, and I read that it did $135 million on its opening weekend. 

 

Yes! its doing very well! I'm planning to see it tonight so I'll reserve judgement. My expectations are low actually... I doubt I'll get the movie I want... but I'm hoping for a fun summer action movie.



#20 1701D

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Posted 09 August 2016 - 02:28 AM

It's a super hero movie that has been very well advertised! No matter what the reviews, it was going to do well!

The big question for the new DC universe is how long can they maintain this run of averagely received movies doing this well at the box office.

Star Trek Beyond though. Well Star Trek has never hit the dazzling heights of what a summer blockbuster generally does at the BO. Even the 2009 movie for the year it was released, did well but not as well as the other big summer movies that year.

So maybe the Axanar thing didn't have much of an impact, I do take your point but the Kelvin Timeline has never been very well received so to hit fans (a small proportion of) with a two fingered salute just added fuel to that fire of anger in what Paramount had done with Star Trek.

A bit of a side note: There's an interesting podcast interview between Irish Trekkie and The Trek Collector talking with John Eaves regarding how restricted JJ Abrams was in his first two movies and how those restrictions were lifted for Beyond regarding what could and couldn't be done due to the awful relationship between CBS and Paramount. It's a good listen: The Nerd Escape PODcast.

This does really though boil down to where Star Trek does its best work: on the TV screens. Star Trek is a TV show not a movie franchise and that's essentially it.

Could it be a billion dollar movie series? I don't think so. I do think though that with the right marketing and the right build up and having more to the Kelvin Timeline than just the movies every three or four years that leads into the movies (I.e. An animated TV series) to get younger people invested and interested in Star Trek could be a way to build on the box office numbers so that it would be able to succeed.

But I think Paramount will have to rethink and do something completely different with Star Trek which doesn't really fit into their big blockbusters only plan.




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